Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 8.340840e-05 0.000099 0.000116 0.000135 0.000156 0.000179 0.000204
2025-02-09 6.195501e-05 0.000082 0.000105 0.000132 0.000165 0.000201 0.000245
2025-02-16 5.405024e-05 0.000077 0.000104 0.000138 0.000179 0.000226 0.000284
2025-02-23 4.513727e-05 0.000069 0.000099 0.000139 0.000187 0.000245 0.000317
2025-03-02 3.640691e-05 0.000060 0.000091 0.000134 0.000187 0.000252 0.000335
2025-03-09 2.957994e-05 0.000053 0.000085 0.000130 0.000189 0.000261 0.000355
2025-03-16 2.513284e-05 0.000048 0.000081 0.000129 0.000193 0.000273 0.000378
2025-03-23 2.174871e-05 0.000045 0.000079 0.000130 0.000199 0.000288 0.000405
2025-03-30 1.842239e-05 0.000041 0.000076 0.000129 0.000203 0.000298 0.000426
2025-04-06 1.503403e-05 0.000037 0.000071 0.000125 0.000202 0.000304 0.000442
2025-04-13 1.304703e-05 0.000034 0.000069 0.000126 0.000208 0.000317 0.000466
2025-04-20 1.027220e-05 0.000030 0.000064 0.000121 0.000205 0.000318 0.000476
2025-04-27 8.675519e-06 0.000028 0.000063 0.000122 0.000212 0.000335 0.000508
2025-05-04 6.930156e-06 0.000025 0.000060 0.000121 0.000216 0.000347 0.000533
2025-05-11 6.179840e-06 0.000024 0.000060 0.000125 0.000227 0.000369 0.000572
2025-05-18 5.157770e-06 0.000023 0.000059 0.000127 0.000234 0.000385 0.000604
2025-05-25 3.710466e-06 0.000019 0.000054 0.000122 0.000231 0.000387 0.000616
2025-06-01 2.716306e-06 0.000017 0.000051 0.000118 0.000230 0.000393 0.000633
2025-06-08 2.083744e-06 0.000015 0.000049 0.000118 0.000233 0.000404 0.000657
2025-06-15 1.659264e-06 0.000014 0.000048 0.000118 0.000239 0.000419 0.000687
2025-06-22 1.219336e-06 0.000013 0.000046 0.000117 0.000241 0.000428 0.000709
2025-06-29 8.053416e-07 0.000011 0.000043 0.000114 0.000240 0.000433 0.000725
2025-07-06 5.990733e-07 0.000010 0.000042 0.000115 0.000245 0.000446 0.000753